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Analysis and forecasting of zonal and project-related technical constraints

Analysis and forecasting of zonal and project-related technical constraints

The high shares of renewable plants sometimes generate problems of oversupply of energy.

Introduction

The problems of constraint: High shares of renewable plants sometimes generate power oversupply problems due to mismatched energy and consumption curves.
The oversupply of energy forces the ORTs and ORDs to impose constraints (downward technical restrictions), limiting the energy production of all plants in that node. The result is the loss of potential revenues from renewable power plants, as well as the possible non-compliance with PPA obligations and the loss of revenues from guarantees of origin.

The opportunities of upward technical restrictions: High consumption areas (cities and industrial centers) are usually far from areas of high RES potential and, many times, their energy supply is linked to the disconnection of assets such as nuclear plants, and plants connected in critical nodes (for example, interconnections to non-peninsular territories). They bring up capacity in substations where the value (and price) of energy is higher than in the rest of the nodes. This is an opportunity for investors and developers.

In relation to the two challenges mentioned above, our team specialized in market and network data analysis offers solutions through its ad hoc technical constraint analysis and forecasts. These analyses help our clients to identify the most suitable areas for project creation and are essential for assessing the detailed expected value of specific projects, contributing to the bankability of projects for RTB project financing, and/or to the valuation of projects in M&A and due diligence processes.

Customized analytical solutions

to evaluate projects, optimize locations and facilitate financing.

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Description

- We inform our customers about the regulatory basis for technical restrictions and provide information on strategies to mitigate their effects (e.g., inclusion of the plant in the SRAP system).

- We assess technical constraint events and trends in the area of your asset, at regional, provincial and nodal scales, through in-depth analysis of historical data from nearby power plants, and using our retained grid and project location databases.

- We generate forecasts of technical constraints, using our ML-based models fed with data on expected grid reinforcements, permitting status of nearby projects and expected changes in the power system on a national scale, among others.

- Our detailed analyses and forecasts of ad hoc technical constraints help to differentiate the value of projects according to their scope of application.

- To stay informed about the market situation and trends, you can subscribe to our monthly newsletter on technical restrictions.

Do you want more information? Contact our expert
Pau Plana
Energy Storage Engineer

Credentials

Storage and Hybridization Strategy Definition

Evaluation and prioritization of more than 300 plots of land for the creation of independent battery energy storage system (BESS) projects; technical office for the generation of all the documentation required to obtain the necessary guarantees and requests for grid access to the system operator (TSO).

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